Factors that affect Total
Fertility Rates
* Cultural Stuff
High infant mortality rates
Children’s labor is necessary for family survival
Children are parent’s social security
Boys are prized more than girls
Religion
*Marriage Age
It stretches out the generations
Women who marry later have fewer children
less dependent upon a spouse; have more education;
have a job---it isn’t clear exactly why
*Educational Opportunities and Gender Parity
Educate young women and they have fewer babies
(perhaps educating young men would also help?)
*Family Planning Services
Availability of contraceptives reduces family size
*Government Policies
China aggressively attacked issue 30 years ago
current pop. = 1.3B; 2050 = 1.5 B
1978 TFR 3.3; 2000 TFR = 1.8
India aggressive in 1970s. Failed.
current pop. = .975B; 2050 = 1.5B
1978 TFR 4.8; 2000 = 3.1
Mexico aggressive now; lax earlier—fought religion
Many young women coming into child bearing age
current pop; .095B; 2050 = .75B
Nigeria has done nothing; 45% pop. coming into child bearing age.
Largest country in Africa—watch out
Current pop. = .121B; 2050 = .338
1978
TFR = 6.5; 2000 = 6.0