Factors that affect Total Fertility Rates


*  Cultural Stuff

            High infant mortality rates

            Children’s labor is necessary for family survival

            Children are parent’s social security

            Boys are prized more than girls



*Marriage Age

            It stretches out the generations

            Women who marry later have fewer children

                        less dependent upon a spouse; have more education;

                        have a job---it isn’t clear exactly why


*Educational Opportunities and Gender Parity

            Educate young women and they have fewer babies

                        (perhaps educating young men would also help?)


*Family Planning Services

            Availability of contraceptives reduces family size


*Government Policies


            China aggressively attacked issue 30 years ago

                        current pop. = 1.3B;     2050 = 1.5 B

                        1978 TFR 3.3;                         2000 TFR = 1.8


            India aggressive in 1970s.  Failed. 

                        current pop. = .975B;   2050 = 1.5B

                        1978 TFR 4.8;                         2000 = 3.1


            Mexico aggressive now; lax earlier—fought religion

                        Many young women coming into child bearing age

                        current pop; .095B;      2050 = .75B

                        1978 TFR 5.3;             2000 = 2.8


            Nigeria has done nothing; 45% pop. coming into child bearing age. 

                        Largest country in Africa—watch out

                        Current pop. = .121B; 2050 = .338

                        1978 TFR = 6.5;                                  2000 = 6.0